(Paul Mirengoff) In an earlier post, I wrote at length about what I thought was the big moment of tonight’s debate — Donald Trump’s attack on George W. Bush. I’ll now offer my overall impression of how the various candidates did. I thought Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio had the best debates. Jeb went toe-to-toe […]
(Paul Mirengoff) Bill Kristol calls attention to a poll from South Carolina that he obtained from a political operative he trusts. The operative is not working with a campaign, but his organization, using a “reputable pollster,” took a poll Wednesday night. The results were as follows: Trump 32 Cruz 26 Rubio 20 Bush 10 Carson […]
(Paul Mirengoff) Here, via FiveThirtyEight, are the new betting market odds on the GOP race: Trump 43 Rubio 20 Bush 17 Cruz 16 Kasich 3 Christie 1 In my opinion, the Bush number is way too high and the Cruz number way too low. But then, Bush has been overestimated and Cruz underestimated ever since […]
(Paul Mirengoff) The networks have called Donald Trump the winner on the Republican side, and it looks like the margin of victory will be large. Currently, John Kasich, who is in second place, has only half of Trump’s vote total. It’s a good win for Trump, but how good? Around the time of the Iowa […]
CHART CREDIT Presidential betting market odds and electabilities Data via Betfair as of 2/7/2016, 8:52:44 AM Candidate Win Nomination Win Presidency Electability if Nominated Hillary Clinton 80.0%–80.6% 51.3%–51.8% 63.6%–64.8% Marco Rubio 47.2%–49.0% 20.8%–21.7% 42.5%–46.1% Donald Trump 25.6%–26.0% 8.0%–8.3% 30.8%–32.5% Bernie Sanders 16.9%–17.5% 7.1%–7.4% 40.7%–43.7% Ted Cruz 12.2%–12.8% 3.8%–4.2% 30.0%–34.2% Jeb Bush 6.1%–7.4% 2.9%–3.1% 39.7%–51.6% […]
(Scott Johnson) Nebraska attorney David Begley winds up his reports from Iowa for us with this account of last night’s GOP caucus in Carter Lake: It was a scene right out of a Norman Rockwell painting. The citizens of Carter Lake gathered at Thomas Jefferson high school in Council Bluffs, Iowa, and voted for the […]
(Paul Mirengoff) I normally don’t recommend books on Power Line unless I’ve read them from beginning to end. However, I’m making an exception for Karl Rove’s The Triumph of William McKinley: Why the Election of 1896 Still Matters. Why? First, because I’m in the early-middle of a long history of Austria and probably won’t make […]
Who Is the Real Hillary Clinton? Please Re-Distribute This Wealth to Your Friends Further Reading: Hillary Comes Out of The Closet Obamacare? No Such thing. It’s Always Been HillaryCare! Brian Williams, Meet Hillary Clinton Hillary Shocker: Clinton Foundation “SOLD” America’s Uranium Production to Russia!