Republicans on offense across the map!

| November 16 2013
  • POLITICO PLAYBOOKFIRST LOOK: “NRSC raised $3.8 million in October, its highest [monthly] total of the year thus far - in spite of the government shutdown. The NRSC remains debt–free, while the DSCC still had over $7.5 million in debt entering the month.”
  • Stu Rothenberg: Over in the Senate, a damaged Obama could easily cost his party the Senate. It’s as simple as that. With an Obama job rating sitting around the 40 percent mark, it’s difficult to imagine Republican seats in Kentucky or Georgia falling to Democrats, and more difficult to imagine Democratic senators in Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas surviving. Even Democratic nominees in Iowa, Michigan and New Hampshire could see their prospects change from good to uncertain.
  • Real Clear PoliticsPresidential job approval is still the most important variable for how his party fares in midterm elections, explaining about half of the variance. The relationship is highly statistically significant: For every point in job approval the president loses, his party loses 0.6 percent of its caucus. So, at 60 percent, the president should lose 5 percent of his caucus; at 50 percent, it is around 12 percent of his caucus lost; at 40 percent, it’s about 18 percent of his caucus lost — which would be 36 seats.
  • RothenBlog’s Nathan Gonzalez: Republicans don’t need to win Michigan to get the majority in the Senate, but the Wolverine State could become a serious takeover target later next year. After more than three decades, Democratic Sen. Carl Levin announced that he would not seek re-election. Instead of competitive primaries filled with ambitious candidates, it looks like both parties have settled on their nominees for next fall. At this point, the general election looks like it will be between Democratic Rep. Gary Peters and Republican former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.  …this open seat should no longer be considered safe.
  • National JournalObamacare Threatens Senate Democrats — And They Know It …Democrats’ visible, vociferous criticism now is a signal of just how threatened the Democratic majority in the Senate is for 2014.
  • Democrat Strategist Gary South, “The Carville of California”: ”This is Obama’s Katrina,” said Democratic strategist Garry South, referring to the 2005 hurricane that inundated New Orleans and robbed then-President George W. Bush of much of his second-term credibility when his administration bungled the disaster response. ”If you’re a Democrat running in an endangered seat who has supported” the Affordable Care Act, South said, “how can you defend this?”
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