New Poll shows Medicaid Expansion Cratering in AZ Among Republican Voters

| April 9 2013
AZ News

Link to Arizona Medicaid Poll

A new poll was released today regarding Governor Brewer’s Medicaid expansion proposal here in Arizona, and not surprisingly, the proposal is taking on water with Arizona conservatives.  The poll serves as a stark contrast to a poll released this weekend by the pro-expansion forces that claims half of Republicans surveyed support the governor’s proposal.  Overall, according to the pro expansion poll, 47 % said they supported Brewer’s expansion plan, 17 % opposed it, and 36 % had not heard of it.

The new poll released today was conducted by Magellan Strategies less than two weeks ago with 812 registered Arizona voters and has a margin of error of 3.44 %.  According to a memo provided by Magellan Strategies, the poll was conducted to “measure voter opinion regarding the expansion of Medicaid, the implementation of Obamacare, as well as voter reaction to their state legislator’s support or opposition to Medicaid expansion.”  The memo does not reveal who commissioned the poll.

Governor Brewer Image Rating

Among all voters, Governor Brewer currently has a net-positive image rating of 49 % of respondents having a favorable opinion of her, 40 % having an unfavorable opinion, and 11% having no opinion.

Opposition for the Medicaid Expansion

When voters were asked: “As you may know, Governor Brewer has proposed the expansion of Medicaid in Arizona to fully implement the federal government’s health care system in 2014.  Knowing this, do you support or opposed the expansion of Medicaid in order to implement the federal government’s health care system?”

Among all respondents (Republicans, Democrats, and Independents), 41 % support the expansion of Medicaid, 37 % oppose expansion, and 22 % are either unsure or have no opinion.  However, the poll demonstrates that there is a great divide in the level of support for the expansion by party.  Alarmingly, only 25 % of Republicans support the expansion while 62 % of Democrats support it.  37 % of Independents support the expansion, 35 % oppose it, and 28 % are either unsure or have no opinion.

There is a -32 difference between support and opposition among Republicans and a +46 difference between support and opposition among Democrats.  50 % of Democrats strongly support the expansion and 47 % of Republicans strongly oppose the expansion.  Among Independents, the number of those who strongly oppose (30 %) is greater than the amount of those who strongly support (27 %).

Full Implementation of Obamacare

Not surprisingly, 58 % of all voters oppose the full implementation of Obamacare.  When you look at those answers by party, 87 % of Republican voters oppose the full implementation of Obamacare and only 10 % support it.  The opposition among Independents is almost 2-to-1.

Voter Support for Legislators Who Vote to Expand Medicaid

Perhaps the most compelling and pertinent portion of the poll is the question that should serve as concern for any and all Republicans thinking about supporting the governor’s proposal.  When asked: “Would you be more or less likely to vote to reelect your state legislator if they voted for the expansion of Medicaid?”

63 % of Republicans are less likely to reelect their legislator if they support expansion.  30 % of Democrats are less likely to support.  And 34 % of Independents are less likely to support.  In total, among all voters, 43 % of voters are less likely to support their legislator with their vote and 30 % are more likely.

Republican members rumored to be supporting Gov. Brewer’s Medicaid expansion proposal include:

  • Rep. Paul Boyer
  • Rep. Heather Carter
  • Rep. Doug Coleman
  • Rep. Ethan Orr
  • Sen. Bob Worsley
  • Sen. Rich Crandall
  • Sen. Steve Pierce
  • Sen. Steve Yarbrough
  • Sen. Adam Driggs
  • Sen. John McComish
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