Public Notice Weekly Polling Analysis

| March 2 2013

POLLING ANALYSIS
February 23-March 1, 2013

MUST READ:
According to Rasmussen, 48% of likely voters think the health care law is more likely to hurt the economy than cutting government spending. 29% believe spending cuts will hurt the economy while 15% think neither will hurt economically.

According to NBC/WSJ, to deal with the budget deficit, 14% of adults would go ahead with the sequester cuts as is; 39% would add more cuts; and 37% would reduce the number of cuts. However, when given two options and asked to choose, 50% of adults said the sequester spending cuts were too severe and would hurt the economy. 46% said drastic measures are needed to reduce the budget deficit.

According to The Hill, 58% of adults favor cutting the debt over maintaining current spending levels on domestic and military programs. 28% favor preserving spending over cutting the debt.

According to The Hill, 49% of adults said they would support cutting military spending to reduce the budget deficit. 37% would oppose.

According to The Hill, while 23% said they would support cutting Social Security and Medicare. 69% would oppose.

According to Rasmussen, 23% of likely voters think the automatic government spending cuts scheduled to take effect today will cut the current level of federal spending. 54% recognize that the so-called sequester cuts will merely reduce the growth of future spending. 23% were not sure.

President Obama: Average approval from mid-February to late February was 50.8% according to RealClearPolitics. Average disapproval was 43.7%. (The average one week ago, which covered late January to late February, was 50.6%. Average disapproval was 42.6%)

Here are the polls released this week on Presidential job approval: 

  • Economist: 47% of adults approve and 44% disapprove.
  • Fox News: 46% of registered voters (40% of Independent registered voters) approve and 47% (44% of Independents) disapprove.
  • NBC/WSJ: 50% of adults approve, the same number as in March 2012. 45% disapprove, also the same percentage as last year.

Gallup tracks President Obama’s job approval on a weekly basis. The average one week ago (Feb. 11-17, 2012) showed 51% approved and 43% disapproved. The latest weekly numbers available (Feb. 18-24, 2012) showed 51% approve and 42% disapprove. Last year at this time (Feb. 20-26, 2011), 45% approved and 47% disapproved.

Rasmussen conducts a daily tracking poll. One week ago (Feb. 22), 52% approved and 47% disapproved. On March 1, approval was 52%; disapproval was 46%. Last year at this time, the President’s approval was 48% and his disapproval 53%.

Congress: Average approval for early January to late February was 15.4% according to the RealClearPolitics average. Average disapproval was 78.7%. (The average one week ago, which covered early January to early February, was 15.6%. Average disapproval was 78.7%)

Here are the polls released this week on Congressional job approval:

  • Economist: 10% of adults approve and 60% disapprove.
  • Fox News: 16% of registered voters (12% of Independent registered voters) approve and 77% (82% of Independents) disapprove.

Right Track/Wrong Track: According to the RealClearPolitics average, which covered mid- to late February, 34.3% think the country is headed in the right direction while 57% think it is headed in the wrong direction. (One week ago, the right track average, which covered  mid-January to mid-February, was 37.2%. The wrong track average was 55.5%.)

Here are the polls released this week on the direction of the country:  

  • NBC/WSJ: 32% of adults think the country is headed in the right direction, down from 33% in March 2012. 59%% think it is headed in the wrong direction, up from 58% on year ago.
  • Rasmussen: 34% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction and 58% think it is headed in the wrong direction.

ISSUE SPECIFIC

Budget Deficit & Spending:
According to Fox News, 81% of registered voters (79% of Independent registered voters) are fed up with the federal budget deficit.

According to NBC/WSJ, 21% of adults think the sequester is a good idea while 52% think it is a bad idea. 25% have no opinion.

According to Rasmussen, 40% of likely voters now think President Obama and Congress should stop the so-called sequester spending cuts from going into effect on March 1. 32% disagree and don’t think they should stop the automatic cuts. 28% are not sure. According to Gallup, 45% of adults want to stop the sequester while 37% want them to go ahead.

According to Fox News, 15% of registered voters (14% of Independent registered voters) think the effects of the sequester will be extremely negative. 30% (27% of Independents) said somewhat negative; 22% (23% of Independents) said the sequester wouldn’t have any effects; 21% (22% of Independents) said the cuts would have a somewhat positive effect; and 6% (7% of Independents) says they would have an extremely positive effect.

According to Pew, 60% of adults think the sequester spending cuts will have a major effect on the economy. 25% say they will have a minor effect and 5% say they will have no effect. Of those who said the cuts will have an effect, 73% believe the effect will be negative and 21% believe it will be positive. According to Gallup, 56% of Americans think the sequester will harm the economy; 30% say it will not.

According to Pew, 30% of adults think the sequester spending cuts will have a major effect on their personal financial situation. 40% say they will have a minor effect and 19% say they will have no effect. According to Gallup, 44% of Americans think the sequester will harm their own personal financial situation; 45% say it will not.

According to Pew, 45% of adults think the sequester spending cuts will have a major effect on the budget deficit. 31% say they will have a minor effect and 12% say they will have no effect.

According to Pew, 55% of adults think the sequester spending cuts will have a major effect on the military. 25% say they will have a minor effect and 10% say they will have no effect.

According to Rasmussen, 45% of likely voters think that the long-term federal budget deficit should be reduced by cutting spending. 36% think the better way to reduce the deficit is through a combination of tax increases and spending cuts. That number includes 18% who want the combination to include more tax increases than cuts and 18% who want more spending cuts than tax hikes. Only 6% feel the deficit should be reduced by raising taxes alone while 13% are uncertain. According to Fox News, 33% of registered voters (36% of Independent registered voters) want lawmakers to deal with the budget deficit only by cutting spending. 19% percent (14% of Independents) want mostly cuts, but with some tax increases mixed in. 36% (42% of Independents) want the breakdown between the two to be equal and only 7% (5% of Independents) want tax increases alone.

President Obama approval on the issue:

  • Economist: 37% of adults approve and 50% disapprove.

Economy & Jobs:
According to the Economist, 25% of adults think the economy is getting better, 36% say it is getting worse, and 30% say it is stuck in neutral

According to Gallup, its “Economic Confidence Index was -13 in the week ending Feb. 24. That compares with the previous week’s -11 and reflects a decline in Americans’ confidence from the five-year weekly high of -8 during the week ending Feb. 3.”

President Obama approval on the issue:

  • Economist: 40% of adults approve and 48% disapprove.
  • NBC/WSJ: 44% of adults approve, down from 45% in March 2012. 51% disapprove, the same percentage as last year.

Entitlements:
According to Rasmussen, 50% of likely voters think it is possible to reduce the cost of Medicare without hurting the quality of health care for senior citizens. 24% disagree and 26% are unsure.

Health Care:
According to Kaiser, when given three choices, 21% of adults said they thought health care was a “private good” that individuals should purchase based on what they need, want and can afford; 37% said basic health care services should be available to all; and 40% said all health care services should be universally available.

According to Rasmussen, 45% of likely voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the 2010 health care law, while 48% view it unfavorably. According toKaiser, 36% of adults have a favorable view (down from 42% in February 2012) of the health care law while 42% have an unfavorable view (down from 43% one year ago).

According to Kaiser, 24% of adults think the 2010 health care law will have a positive effect on themselves and their families; 32% think it will have a negative effect; and 36% think it will not make a difference.

According to Kaiser, 34% of adults think the 2010 health care law will have a positive effect on the nation as a whole; 38% think it will have a negative effect; and 19% think it will not make a difference.

Regulation:
According to NBC/WSJ, 58% of adults favor raising the minimum wage, but 36% oppose. 

Public Notice is an independent non-profit dedicated to providing facts and insight on the economy and how government policy affects Americans’ financial well-being.

0 comments