Obama Is Crumbling, Part 7: Has the race tightened?

| November 1 2012
Christopher Cook

It’s Thursday, and just as one would expect, Halloween carried some frightful things for conservatives: National polls showing the race tightening. More polls showing Ohio basically tied. Little polling from the big national firms to hang our hats on . . .

But there is strong reason to believe that many of these “tightened” polls are decidedly unhelpful in predicting next Tuesday’s outcome. The polls continue to use unrealistic samples, such as the PPP poll showing Obama winning Ohio by five with an insane D/R/I of 45/36/19. And yes, Virginia, “insane” is a reasonable choice of words here, as 2010 was 36/37/28 and 2008, a wave year, was somewhere between D+5 and D+7. Were I a polling company owner, I would not want my brand tarnished by such ridiculousness. There is NO WAY Ohio is going to have 45% Democrat turnout. No way.

Similarly, the Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up by a ridiculous amount, using ridiculous samples:

What do the samples look like? Here’s the breakdown for each state, with 2008 and 2010 exit polling in parentheses (2009 in VA’s case):

  • FL: 37/30/29 (37/34/29, 36/36/29)
  • OH: 37/29/30 (39/31/30, 36/37/28)
  • VA: 35/27/35 (39/33/27, 33/37/30)

ridiculous |riˈdikyələs|adjective
deserving or inviting derision or mockery; absurd

Barack Obama has a ceiling of between 46 and 48%. Nearly every poll is showing that. The only way to nudge him to 49 or 50 is to use samples that will never play out in reality. This has gone from bad polling to an obvious attempt to shore up flagging Democrat enthusiasm, depress Republicans, and create a bandwagon effect for Obama. This is agenda polling. It will have some effect—perhaps it will keep the race close. But at this point, even the media and pollsters’ constant efforts to fibricate™ an alternate reality may not be enough . . . .

Romney is clobbering Obama with white voters (who still make up a majority of the country, and heavily so in several of the states that are in Obama’s slowly collapsing firewall).

Romney’s standing continues to improve with voters on factors such as likability (he now leads Obama), the economy (he leads Obama by a wide margin), and ability to break gridlock. There are also polls showing voters disapproving of Obama on Libya, the economy, and other factors. We obsess over early votes and swing state polling, and rightly so, but there is also the factor of what people will actually do once they are in the voting booth. These approval/disapproval factors are indicators of where undecideds, late-breakers, and last-minute deciders will go.

Another survey to add to the Gallup bombshell, this one from Pew, shows Romney beating Obama in early voters. Some of that will, of course, be in safe Romney states. But the Romney camp is enthusiastic about their operations in Ohio and Nevada.

New state polling has Romney ahead in Colorado and tied in Wisconsin.

Romney is still crushing Obama with the hugely important independent voters.

Finally, for what it’s worth, the “Architect,” as he is called, is predicting a 51% Romney win.

This race ain’t over till its over  . . . but this race is also not what the media and biased pollsters are trying to get you to believe. For more on why that is, and why Romney is looking good to win this race, see the previous items in this series:

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