Obama Is Crumbling, Part 5: Slipping Away
Commentators who are uncomfortable predicting the outcome of the election with 100% surety, but who nonetheless see an unmistakable trend, find ourselves compelled to add disclaimers such as, ”It’s not over until it’s over” to pieces like these. And in a way, it is reasonable. Barack Obama could still win. The media has done an incredible job of shielding him, buoying him, covering his errors, and creating a false picture of who he truly is. The Mickey-Mouse polls that the media is commissioning are using samples that are so absurd as to provoke near-speechlessness on the part of conservative observers who understand the absurdity. No, Virginia, Democrats are not going to overperform, and Republicans are not going to underperform, their 2008 turnout. By all rights, and based on the fundamentals, Obama should lose this election by double-digits. But the media fibrication™ machine is strong.
Intrade reflects this media-created reality; it still shows a heavy belief that Obama will win when real, solid analysis of the fundamentals should indicate the opposite. Perceptions can become reality—the media might succeed in fabricating a climate that helps Obama eke out a narrow win.
But that is becoming increasingly unlikely. With each day, with each new data point, a Romney win looks more likely. We’ve been covering this growing list of data points, polls, anecdotes, observations, and analyses over the last week . . .
- Obama Is Crumbling: The Denver Shark-Jump
- Obama Is Crumbling, Part 2: Polls and Stats
- Obama Is Crumbling, Part 3: The signs are building
- Obama Is Crumbling, Part 4: One Week to Go
. . . and now we shall continue with more.
As a general rule, fewer Republicans do early voting; Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day. So, for example, there were states in 2008 that McCain would have won if just the votes from Election Day, and not early votes, were counted. If conventional wisdom holds, that means that Romney doesn’t have to win early voting, he just needs to do well. And every indication is that Republicans are overperforming 2008 and Democrats are underperforming 2008 in terms of early voting.
And now, we have this amazing data from Gallup, via John Nolte:
If Gallup is right, this election might not only be Romney’s, this election might not even be close.
Everyone has been saying that “Ohio is trending Romney’s way, but he hasn’t yet shown a lead in any poll.” Well, that ended yesterday with one poll showing the race tied and another—from the reliable Rasmussen—showing him up by 2. Add in Romney’s lead with Ohio independent, the Republican enthusiasm advantage, the fact that the Dems are cannibalizing their high propensity voters, and the fact that the GOP tends to overperform in Ohio on Election Day, and this is a good place to be for Romney.
More . . .
This sign from Michigan says a great deal. No, it’s not a scientific poll, it’s just a snapshot, but I don’t think we were seeing much of this back in 2008 with McCain-Obama . . .
Here’s Michael Barone on a subject with both short- and long-term ramifications:
Finally, this quote from Jack Kelly’s Watching the Collapse of the Obama Campaign may say it all:
“It isn’t just in Virginia where Mr. Obama’s fortunes are plummeting. When Missouri isn’t a swing state, but Minnesota is, Democrats are in big trouble. No challenger who’s cracked 50 percent in Gallup’s tracking poll has ever lost. Mr. Romney is polling better at this point in the campaign than did every victorious challenger from 1968 on.”
Nate Silver and the media are still trying to comfort themselves, while all the signs show this election slipping away from Obama. Anything can happen, but there’s just one week left and little time to change the momentum . . .
One item from Sunday that we must include: The Obama Ground Game Myth
Also, if you didn’t get a chance to read Rick Wilson’s The Inflection Point last week, treat yourself now. It’s one of the best things written this cycle.