Obama is in trouble

| October 18 2012
Christopher Cook

His campaign knows it. Whether Obama himself knows it or not depends on how deep his personal narcissism extends (after all, he apparently thought he had won the first debate until it was made clear by the reaction of everyone else in the country that he hadn’t).

Evidence of this trouble is coming out in a variety of forms. First, the triage:

To Gage a Campaign’s Triage, Look at the Candidate Stops

The Thursday edition of the Morning Jolt begins with a look at rumors of the Obama campaign triaging states, noting that for all the talk of ad spending, there is one truly finite resource the campaigns must manage:

Both campaigns will have piles of cash; the one truly limited resource is the candidate’s time. Obama spent Wednesday in Iowa and Ohio. Today he’s scheduled to campaign in New Hampshire and deliver remarks at the 67th Annual Alfred. E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner in New York City. The President will return to Washington, DC in the evening. On Friday, the President will travel to Camp David where he will remain overnight. Monday’s final debate is in Florida.

Obama’s base in northern Virginia makes it easy for him to drop in while traveling in or out of Washington.  If you see Obama making fewer and fewer stops, or no stops, in North Carolina, post-debate Florida, or Colorado, then it’s a strong hint that the campaign strategy has indeed shifted.


It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent.

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Also from the HotAir post referenced above comes this nugget of statistical wisdom from Karl Rove:

Karl Rove told Megyn Kelly today that no presidential candidate has ever lost an election leading in mid-October by over 50 percent with likely voters.

Will an October surprise of attacking the purported perpetrators of the Benghazi attacks change the trajectory? It’s hard to say for sure, but in an America exhausted by Obamanomics, that just may be too little, too late.

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