AZ-1 poll: Paton 50, Kirkpatrick 45, plus huge media endorsements

| October 9 2012

The sample breakdown of the poll was D44/R32/I23, a D+12. Chances are, turnout will not favor Democrats nearly that much on Election Day, which makes this poll even better for Paton.

From NRCC Polling:

Iraq veteran Jonathan Paton is on the rise according to the results of a poll conducted by the NRCC in Arizona’s 1st District. Paton is benefitting from an advertising blitz in the last two weeks that has helped him move ahead of former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick. As the default incumbent in the race, Kirkpatrick can ill afford to fall behind when undecided voters are likely to break for the challenger.

Congressional Ballot:
Jonathan Paton

50%

Ann Kirkpatrick

45%

Undecided

5%

Voters are deadlocked 46-46% on whether they prefer a Republican or Democrat to represent them in Congress. Paton’s 50% on the ballot demonstrates support for him that goes beyond just base voters.

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republican

46%

Democratic

46%

Undecided

8%

At the top of the ticket, a post-debate bounce is evident for Governor Romney.

Presidential Ballot:
Mitt Romney

51%

Barack Obama

46%

Undecided

3%

The interactive voice response (IVR) survey was conducted by the NRCC on October 4th with a sample size of 501 respondents and a margin of error +/-4.3%. The party registration breakdown for the sample was:

Sample by party:
Democrats

44%

Republican

32%

Independents

23%

Other

1%

 

Also in Paton’s favor: The Casa Grande Dispatch has endorsed him over Ann Kirkpatrick. Here are the releases from the Paton campaign on the Casa Grande Dispatch’s endorsement:

Here’s what the Dispatch had to say in today’s paper:

“In a candidate forum sponsored by the Dispatch on Thursday night, Paton pointed out that Kirkpatrick had voted for the unpopular Obamacare and also for the president’s stimulus package. He offered a vision of a growing economy and bringing federal spending under control with policies different from those favored by the president. We believe that is crucial for the country’s future. The Dispatch endorses Paton.”

In today’s Sunday paper, the Casa Grande Dispatch picked Jonathan Paton over Ann Kirkpatrick for its endorsement in the race for Arizona’s First Congressional District. Check out below what the Dispatch had to say about why Paton is the better choice for voters in CD1:

Casa Grande Dispatch: Paton in 1st District:

“Paton is an Army veteran of the Iraq War and supports secure borders. He is a constitutional conservative who believes in smaller government, a message that Washington desperately needs to hear more of.”

“In a candidate forum sponsored by the Dispatch on Thursday night, Paton pointed out that Kirkpatrick had voted for the unpopular Obamacare and also for the president’s stimulus package. He offered a vision of a growing economy and bringing federal spending under control with policies different from those favored by the president. We believe that is crucial for the country’s future. The Dispatch endorses Paton.”

Finally, from Amilyn Gordon, Paton’s Campaign Manager:

Here’s the headline in the Arizona Republic that voters are waking up to today:

“Paton has the right temperament”

With a new poll showing us ahead of Ann Kirkpatrick by 5 points, two exceptional debate performances by Jonathan, and the Casa Grande Dispatch endorsing our campaign on Sunday, I knew we were having a great week.

But with today’s endorsement of Jonathan by the largest newspaper in the state – one that endorsed Kirkpatrick in 2008 and 2010 – our campaign is really gaining momentum.

The editorial speaks for itself:

“For an hour, Kirkpatrick ridiculed, belittled, cut off and scolded her opponent in a manner that exceeded rudeness. We have seen more complete meltdowns in our board meetings but never one so unexpected.”

And this:

“Paton is a jobs hawk who supports the development of the Resolution Copper mine, which could bring thousands of jobs to rural Arizona… What sets them apart is composure. She lost hers during a significant test for this endorsement. He did not.”

With early ballots going out in just two days, it is more important than ever to capture the momentum and take this race to the finish line!

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