The polls are wrong! Registration gap trends towards GOP in IA, FL, NV, NM, NC, PA, and CO
Tell me again why we should be trusting the polls we’re being fed? Why are pollsters insisting that 2008 turnout models will be predictive this time? Why are they insisting that trends have moved in the direction of the Democrats when the opposite is true?
Registration advantages and shifts
(Data from Jim Geraghty at the Campaign Spot)
2009: D+ 110,000
2012: R+ 20,000
Shift to R: 90,000
Advantage: D+ 454,752
Advantage: D+ 100,723
Advantage: D+ 47,571
Advantage: D+ 218,610
Advantage: D+ 196,758
Advantage: D+ 864,253
Advantage: D+ 769,926
Advantage: D+ 1,237,467
Advantage: D+ 1,086,006
Advantage: R+ 9,073
Advantage: R+ 97,954
One of the most fascinating takeaways here is how, in many cases, both parties are losing registered voters. That is a subject of longer-term interest. But for now, the big story is this:
- The Democrats are losing more members than the Republicans. In every one of these states, the Republicans either gained registered voters or lost fewer of them than the Democrats did.
- The shift since 2008 has been towards the GOP and away from the Democrats.
So, how can any poll that uses 2008 turnout as a model be useful for 2012?
The answer is that they cannot. The pollsters are either intentionally misleading you in order to create a bandwagon effect for Obama, or they are incompetently missing obvious trends.