Obama buyer’s remorse
The media and some of the pollsters are trying to convince you that Barack Obama has this in the bag. Of course, they were trying to convince you that Carter had it in the bag in 1980, so their credibility isn’t really first rate anymore. Here are some important points:
- Democrats will not turn out at anywhere near the rate they did in 2008. Any poll that uses 2008 as a basis for its 2012 turnout predictions is next of kin to useless.
- Republican cohorts are more enthusiastic than Democrat cohorts.
- Romney will win indies.
- No cohort that voted for Obama in 2008 will be an enthusiastic in 2012.
This last point is common sense. After four years of what has been a disappointing presidency (to all but a core of robotically loyal supporters), it is unlikely that any cohort will turn out in as great numbers or as great a percentage as they did when Obama was a messianic tabula rasa of hope, change, and unicorns. Unlike Ronald Reagan, who went from strong victory in 1980 to crushing landslide victory in 1984, Obama has not inspired more excitement and loyalty.
Rather, buyer’s remorse is a much more likely feature among a certain percentage of every one of his 2008 cohorts.
Here’s one example: