Romney is going to win, unless . . .
Romney is going to win, unless . . . YOU become demoralized. Here’s the deal.
Right now, Romney is polling higher among independents. Right now, pro-Romney voting cohorts are much more enthusiastic than pro-Obama cohorts. If those two things hold, Romney will win.
A lot of the polls are using terribly inaccurate samples, ones that presume massive Democrat turnout and slightly depressed Republican turnout. That is not an accurate picture of what is going to happen. The polls are misleading.
Romney will keep his advantage among indies. Swing voters are called swing voters for a reason, and this year, they are not going to swing with an incumbent who has failed this badly. There isn’t much that the media, the pollsters, or the Obama campaign can do about that. Their one hope is to change the turnout dynamic—to excite their base and depress ours.
Right now, they are doing their best to depress ours. Do not let them get away with it. People are writing stories about how it’s all over. People even on our side. This is nonsense. This race is Romney’s to lose. Barring some weird occurrence, the only thing that can change that is if they manage to flip the turnout situation. All you have to do to stop that is to not get demoralized, and to not let others get demoralized.
Now, read these . . .
Political strategist Karl Rove Wednesday said recent polls show President Barack Obama in “desperate shape” in some key states he carried in 2008 and urged Republicans not to be discouraged by polls suggesting Mitt Romney has been wounded too severely by campaign missteps to recover.“The swing state poll shows the president in desperate shape in territory he carried with ease in 2008,” Rove said told Fox News’ Neil Cavuto Wednesday evening, referring to a recent USA Today/Gallup poll showing Obama up by 48 percent to 46 percent over Romney.Rove, a Fox News contributor and the founder of the Republican super PAC Crossroad GPS, said a closer look at the poll, however, indicates trouble ahead for the president in many of the 11 key battleground states when compared to a similar poll from the 2008 presidential race.Rove noted that Obama was ahead of Sen. John McCain then with 55 percent of likely voters, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in mid-September of that campaign.“So Mitt Romney is already running ahead of the pace of John McCain. And President Obama is running . . . over six points behind where he did in these states in 2008,” Rove told Cavuto.“It’s amazing to me,” Rove said, adding that he would be worried “if I were in the White House and looking at this.”
Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:
1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.
Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.
But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in . . .