Good reason to believe Romney will win

| August 22 2012
Christopher Cook

I have written extensively on the subject of the enthusiasm gap in the upcoming election, which I believe may very likely be the determining factor. The basics are simple. The polls are showing a close race. There are some undecideds, but many have already made up their minds. Romney will do better among independents than McCain did, but there is a good chance that Obama will hold on to a decent share. This election is going to come down to what voting cohorts are more enthusiastic about voting, and what cohorts are less enthusiastic. It’s about turnout—who does, and who doesn’t.

I have argued, both by reference to statistics and to common sense, that Obama voters will be less enthusiastic, and Romney/anti-Obama voters will be more so. In a close election, that gap can easily cover the distance and give Romney the win. If the election percentages do not turn out to be close, and Romney takes a larger share, then that gap turns a victory into a blowout, impacting down-ticket races across the country.

There are a lot of variables, and much can happen between now and the election, but data from Resurgent Republic, for the moment at least, is reinforcing my contention. In fact, the enthusiasm gap is pretty lopsided.

Observe . . .

(Click for a larger version)

 If this gap holds, and if nothing major changes between now and Election Day, Romney may be in a very good position to become the 45th President of the United States.