Obama v. Romney polling: Let’s take a look inside.

| August 15 2012

Recent CNN and Fox News polls rightfully give conservatives pause. CNN posted a poll recently giving President Obama a 7% edge if the election were held today. Fox News posted a poll giving President Obama a 9% edge.

With the General Election about 80 days away, this election will still turn a number of directions and a number of times. While no one is prognosticating, there are several statistical reasons why these polls do not spell the end for the Romney Campaign.

First, President Obama’s support from commonly believed strongholds is dropping. Virginia lends a perfect example of this. Northern Virginia helped President Obama win the whole state in the 2008 Presidential election against John McCain. He was the first Democrat to win the state since 1964. Along with CNN’s and Fox News’ national poll, local news is reporting Northern Virginia a dead heat. With 13 electoral votes, Virginia plays a pivotal role in the 2012 election.

Next, Independents polled in the CNN/Fox News poll are still 20% undecided. Romney currently trails the President by 11% amongst Independents, but even 24% of those decided Independent voters might change their mind. So, with the 20% Independent voters that remain undecided and the 17% of already decided Independent voters that could be convinced to change their vote, Romney could move almost 37% of Independents to vote for him. While that level of shift is unlikely, even a majority of that 37% would see Romney beating the President amongst Independent voters.

Finally, and most importantly, more people trust Mitt Romney will do a better job improving the economy and reducing the deficit than President Obama. 46% of those polled felt Romney was more qualified to turn around the economy (3% more than President Obama.) Even further, 8% more of the people polled felt Romney could cut the deficit better than the President.

While the headline “President Up 7%” might catch an eye, the inside numbers tell more about where the country stands. The economy is the number one issue and voters trust Romney more than the President to turn the economy around. The President has not done it in three and a half years; give someone else that is more trusted a chance.

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