It’s defective: 9% of Obama supporters jump ship for Romney

| August 7 2012
Hannah Thoreson

The media is trying to proclaim Mitt Romney’s candidacy DOA before the general election truly begins.  At this point, Mitt hasn’t even touched the funds earmarked for the post-primary battle, because he can’t until after he is nominated.  Meanwhile, polling has already been in full swing, giving Obama an inherent advantage… or does it?

From POLITICO:

A new poll shows that President Obama is losing nine percent of his 2008 supporters to Mitt Romney..

Gallup finds that 86 percent of 2008 Obama voters say they plan to vote for the president again. Nine percent, however, say they’re now supporting Romney.

On the other hand, 92 percent of John McCain voters say they’re supporting Mitt Romney. Five percent of those McCain voters are now voting for Obama.

That’s a net shift of four percent of the electorate moving away from Obama.

Gallup also finds that five percent of Obama voters and three percent of McCain voters are undecided or voting for neither.

Conventional wisdom has it that incumbents should work toward reducing the number of undecided voters in the electorate, because they will tend to favor the opposition if their vote isn’t vacuumed up very quickly by the more well-known, more experienced candidate.  If President Obama has lost 9% to Romney right off the bat, and another 5% to “undecided”, that shows where the momentum is.  There wouldn’t be 5% undecided Obama ’08 voters if they still had confidence in the performance of the candidate they had already voted for once before.

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