Jeff Flake has 22-point lead over Wil Cardon

| July 26 2012
Hannah Thoreson

Despite unleashing torrents of negative advertising and desperate hit pieces aimed at likely nominee Jeff Flake, Wil Cardon has yet to move the numbers in the race.  Polls are still sitting exactly where they have been for months on end, giving Jeff Flake a 22-point lead in the Arizona Senate primary.

U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake leads Republican Senate rival Wil Cardon by 22 percentage points in a new statewide poll of Arizona GOP-primary voters.

Flake, a six-term congressman, was the choice of 45 percent of those surveyed, while Cardon, a wealthy Mesa investor who has been clobbering Flake with TV ads, was the pick of 23 percent. Their GOP opponents — Bryan Hackbarth, a former Youngtown mayor, and Clair “Van” Van Steenwyk, a conservative radio host — were not included in the poll, but 16 percent of respondents said they preferred “some other candidate” to Flake and Cardon. Another 16 percent remains undecided.

The survey of 678 people was conducted July 16-17 by Magellan Strategies, a Colorado-based, Republican-leaning polling firm, on behalf of a pro-Flake super PAC called Protect Arizona’s Freedom. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.76 percentage points.

It could be that a politician who isn’t well known simply can’t level those kind of negative attacks against an experienced officeholder without having them backfire horribly.  Maybe voters are looking for a well-rounded voice for their concerns in the Senate, and Wil Cardon hasn’t proven that he would provide that.  But either way, when the candidate’s press releases say things like “Wil Cardon is only concerned with the endorsement of one group – Arizona voters. They are the ones who will decide this race”, you know they’re in trouble.

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