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Elections, Politics

Arkansas numbers show trouble for Obama

Posted: May 23, 2012 at 4:24 am   /   by

Look at the numbers below from the Arkansas Secretary of State. What do you see?

Romney is coming out of a hotly contested four-way primary, complete with lots of hard feelings and one candidate (Ron Paul) who is still somewhat active and has a rabidly devoted fan-base.

Obama is the sitting president running in a primary in which he is—with the exception of a few unfunded, unknown, state-level candidates—running unopposed.

In Arkansas, competing with his three other opponents, Romney is currently taking more than 68%.

President Barack Obama, against his one unknown underfunded state-level opponent, is currently taking 58%.

That is a sign unpopularity for the president. It is an open primary, so it is possible that there was some mischief-making votes cast by Republicans, but there was no concerted effort to do so, a la Operation Chaos in 2008. Mostly, these would have been Democrats voting. What does it tell you when a sitting president barely breaks 50% in a primary vote taken mostly among members of his own party?

The question answers itself.

No, it doesn’t mean he’s going to lose Arkansas’ delegates. And no, he isn’t going to win Arkansas anyway. And yes, as of this writing (after 6 AM Arkansas time), not all the precincts are in, and Obama could enjoy a sudden surge. But the narrative will remain largely the same.

Hope and change is gone. It has been replaced by stagnation, malaise, and negativity. Not a winning combination.


U.S. President – DEM
53 of 75 Counties Reporting
Percent Votes
John Wolfe (DEM) 41.53% 66,544
Barack Obama (DEM) 58.47% 93,705
U.S. President – REP
53 of 75 Counties Reporting
Percent Votes
Newt Gingrich (REP) 4.92% 7,354
Mitt Romney (REP) 68.33% 102,183
Rick Santorum (REP) 13.34% 19,943
Ron Paul (REP) 13.42% 20,068