Has the race turned in Romney’s favor?

| May 17 2012
Christopher Cook

Prognostications this early are ill-advised. Jimmy Carter was well ahead at this time of year, and he was blown out on Election Day.  We have a long way to go until November, and much can happen.

But everything that happens along the way—and every signpost on that journey—help add up to the end result in November. That is why we take snapshots every day. And where are we today is surprising a lot of people who, just a few short weeks ago, thought Obama had this in the bag.

Obama does NOT have this in the bag. In fact, it may be the case that the race is truly Romney’s to lose. Again, much can change, but right now, everything is turning in Romney’s favor. Here are a few examples of things moving in the GOP’s direction:

Rattled Obama team making miscues

Is it panic time at Obama headquarters in Chicago? You might get that impression from watching events — and the polls — over the past few weeks.

In matchups against Mitt Romney, the president is leading by only 47 to 45 percent in the Realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls. A CBS/New York Times panel-back poll, in which interviewers call back respondents to a previous survey, showed Romney leading 46 to 43 percent — and leading among women.

 

Is Pennsylvania In Play for November? Maybe.

 . . . Still, there are reasons for GOP strategists to look long and hard at the state this time, thinking 2012 could be different.

 

Three different ways to look at the 2012 campaign

 . . . The 1988 scenario: Affluent voters break strongly Republican. Vice President George Bush was 17 points behind Michael Dukakis after the Democratic National Convention. But he came back to win by a 53 to 46 percent margin . . .

 

610-0: Senate votes down Obama’s budget unanimously — again

Another day, another congressional shutout of O’s latest unserious gimmick. That makes three in the past year. The Senate torpedoed his last budget 97-0 in May 2011, then the House dropped a goose egg on him in March with a robust 414-0 tally. Now this. [ . . . ]

 Said Mitch McConnell of Reid’s refusal to offer his own budget, “They’re so unserious they won’t even vote for a budget that was written by a president of their own party. It doesn’t get more irresponsible than that.”

 

Donors tied to banking desert Obama for Romney

“There’s no doubt that there’s been a big diminution of support for the president,’’ said William M. Daley, Obama’s former chief of staff and a former top JPMorgan Chase executive. “People in the financial services sector are saying, ‘The president has been too tough on us, both in policy and on rhetoric.’ ’’

The top five donor groups in Romney’s campaign are individuals and political action committees associated with large financial institutions, led by Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, according to information compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group that tracks campaign donations.

By contrast, Obama’s top five contributor groups include individuals and PACs affiliated with high technology giants Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp., and the global law firms DLA Piper and Sidley Austin, and do not include those associated with banks. In 2008, financial institutions backed him generously.

 

Obama/DNC fundraising drops $10 million from March to April

A month ago, the combined haul from the Barack Obama campaign and the DNC came to $53 million, a level that didn’t keep pace with 2008 Democratic fundraising, but still gave Team O some bragging rights for the improvement over a $45 million February.  According to their announcement this morning, the Obama/DNC effort couldn’t even match February’s numbers, let alone March’s

 

North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 43%

 Mitt Romney has moved out to an eight-point lead over President Obama in North Carolina after the two men were virtually tied a month ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State shows the putative Republican nominee earning 51% of the vote to Obama’s 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

That’s a big change from last month when Romney posted a narrow 46% to 44% lead over the president in Rasmussen Reports’ first survey of the race in North Carolina.  Democrats have signaled North Carolina’s importance as a key swing state by deciding to hold their national convention in Charlotte this summer.

 

Add to this Scott Walker starting a mini-surge in Wisconsin, and Romney polling well there too, and things are looking pretty good. Of course, the left can surely find a series of articles like this to spread sunshine among their own ranks, but there is no doubt that they have gone from glee and overconfidence a few weeks ago to having their heads spin now. You mean someone might actually beat THE ONE?

Yes, Virginia, and his name is Mitt Romney. And the Republicans might just take back the Senate, too. It’s been known to happen.

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  1. [...] now, everything is trending Mitt Romney’s way, and there are a lot of different reasons why. We listed a number of these yesterday; here are several [...]