Victory is not guaranteed

| October 20 2010
Christopher Cook

Things are set to go well for the GOP on November 2nd. In fact, the debate has now turned away from if they will do well to how well will they do. And indeed, there are lots of stories to the effect that a wave of historic proportions may be in the offing. Politico's recent story The Democrats' brutal weekend and the RCP average all add to the effect.

In Arizona, however, a note of caution is warranted, and conservative activists should not rest for a moment:

It’s a Roller Coaster for Some House Hopefuls

 . . . Arizona Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick looked all but cooked six weeks ago, but she has a chance to squeeze out another term, in part because the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s on again, off again commitment in the Phoenix market appears to be on once again.

Republican Paul Gosar, a dentist with little political experience, has proven to be a mediocre fundraiser, forcing the National Republican Congressional Committee to carry the advertising load in the 1st district race. Both parties agree that the race is now within the margin of error, a dramatic reversal from earlier, when the Congresswoman trailed badly.

Also in Arizona, 5th district Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) has rallied and now has a chance to win. GOP challenger David Schweikert hopes that his third run for Congress is the charm, and the changed political environment from 2008 — when he lost by 9 points to Mitchell — could be enough to help him to victory. But if the challenger wins, it will be a much heavier lift than it appeared just a month ago.

If that makes you nervous, it should. Things are a lot closer than they ought to be, and those are must-win races. Activists interested in making a difference should certainly take a look at these and show them to as many people in their districts as they can:


Information on AZ Congressional Districts 1, 5, and 8. Click the images to learn more. These guides are provided for informational purposes.